HOUSING

6.1 The Joint Structure Plan strategy focuses development primarily in the settlements designated as Towns. The proposals in Policy STR 2: Towns, and Policy 4: Development in Towns for distributing housing have been influenced by;

• The strategic direction provided through the current version of RPG 10: Regional Planning Guidance for the South West (1994),
• the economic prospects for different parts of the plan area, and,
• past demographic trends and the principles outlined in the strategy.

6.2 Consideration has also been given to environmental factors. All these elements point towards a greater concentration of development to avoid any further erosion of the rural character of the area covered by the Joint Structure Plan and to underpin its economic prospects. Locating housing in areas with the best job prospects will reduce the potential need to travel and assist in the efficient provision of public transport. The implications that this approach will have on the character of particular types of area and the issues it could present to their communities in the future is currently being addressed at a national level by Central Government through the publication of two White Papers; Our Countryside: The Future - A Fair deal for Rural England and, Our Towns and Cities: The Future - Delivering an Urban Renaissance. These make a distinction between urban and rural areas. The outcome of the consultation process associated with these White Papers may have an influence on future revisions to the overall strategy of the Joint Structure Plan, particularly in relation to the distribution and location of housing development.

OBJECTIVES

• To provide sufficient housing to meet the housing needs of the future population.
• To meet the need for affordable housing, particularly in rural areas.
• To distribute housing development in a way which supports the strategy of the Plan.

6.3 These objectives will be secured by the implementation of a series of policies that will provide the framework for the preparation of district-wide local plans and guide the development control process. In general terms, this will be achieved by the allocation of the housing requirement in accordance with the strategy. In this way, the future needs of the population will be met in a way that is consistent with the aims of more sustainable development.

6.4 Other policies will assist in achieving the aim of sustainable development by providing the strategic framework and opportunities for creating better urban residential environments. This aim will also be fulfilled by measures to offset any loss of environmental assets and by enabling social and physical infrastructure to be provided in conjunction with new housing. Finally, the general housing needs of the plan area will be met insofar as the assumptions about migration and economic prospects are fulfilled. These needs also relate to social needs housing that will be secured via policies in the district-wide local plans based on the approach set out in the Joint Structure Plan.

POLICY 33
PROVISION FOR HOUSING.

Provision will be made for about 44,800 dwellings over the period 1991 - 2011. This requirement will be distributed in accordance with strategy as follows:

District	Additional Dwellings Proposed
Mendip	About 8,950
Sedgemoor	About 9,200
South Somerset	About 13,700
Taunton Deane	About 10,450
West Somerset	About 2,400*

*(The provision for West Somerset includes about 250 dwellings to be identified within the part of the Exmoor National Park that is in Somerset).

In addition to the district distribution, provision for about 100 dwellings will be identified within that part of the Exmoor National Park that is in Devon.

In the Exmoor National Park provision for new residential development should only be made where it would help to meet local social or economic needs and be of a scale in keeping with the size and character of the settlement, and the rural character of the surrounding area.

6.5 Policy 33 specifies a housing requirement of 44,800 new dwellings for the period 1991-2011. Of these, almost 34.5 % had been built by April 1999 and a further 30.7% were committed. The remaining housing requirement to be identified for the plan period will come from two main sources:

• through the release of housing sites in emerging district-wide local plan preparation and review;
  
  
• 'windfall' development, including conversions of houses and other buildings and small scale development, principally from within the development limits of settlements designated as, Towns, Rural Centres and Villages.

6.6 In order to retain control over the scale and location of development, it is essential that district-wide local plans make an appropriate and realistic allowance for 'windfall' development. The allowance made must be justified by evidence of past experience and/or some assessment of current capacity and based on the following:

• an allowance for all sites and building conversions of less than 0.4ha.;
• for sites of 0.4ha -1.0ha, an allowance should be made if there is evidence that such sites have regularly occurred despite attempts to identify them;
• no allowance should be made for large windfall sites (i.e. >1.0ha); such sites should be identified in local plans.

6.7 Policy 33 sets out the new housing requirements for Somerset and Exmoor. The housing requirements are provided at a district level. The distribution of housing development below this level will be left to the Local Planning Authorities to determine through their district-wide local plans. However, this should be guided by the strategic policies (STR 1 - 7) of the Joint Structure Plan. In meeting the housing requirements in Policy 33: Provision for Housing, the Local Planning Authorities will take into account completions since mid 1991, existing commitments and, an allowance for new housing on ÔwindfallÕ sites. An allowance is also made in Policy 33 for that part of the Exmoor National Park that is located within the administrative boundaries of the County of Devon.

THE HOUSING REQUIREMENT

6.8 RPG 10: Regional Planning Guidance for the South West (1994) identified the need for 2,500 dwellings per annum in Somerset alone for the period 1991 - 2011 (at the time of the publication of RPG 10, the National Park had not been identified as a Strategic Planning Authority). Since the publication of this advice, a number of demographic changes have occurred that influence the long-term trends and forecasts concerning the future population growth and housing requirements for the area covered by the Joint Structure Plan. The Regional Planning Guidance itself has been subject to a process of re-appraisal and updating in recent years. The review of the Regional Planning Guidance was subject to a Public Examination in March 2000. The findings of an independent Panel were published in July of that year and it was recommended that the annual housing requirement, for Somerset only, during the period 1996 - 2016, should be about 2,100 new dwellings per annum. The housing requirement figure was endorsed by the Secretary of State through, Draft Regional Planning Guidance for the South West (RPG 10): Proposed Changes, which was published in December 2000. However, the Secretary of State indicated clearly that the annual rate was to be restricted to cover the period up to 2006 only, in the first instance. This rate is significantly lower than that which was recommended in the current RPG 10, of 2,500, or that which has been adopted in through Policy 33: Provision for Housing, in this plan of 2,235 dwellings per annum. This may have implications for the Joint Structure Plan when it is reviewed to reflect the emerging Regional Planning Guidance to 2016.

6.9 In calculating the future housing requirement and its distribution, the Strategic Planning Authorities have undertaken research into a number of aspects including;

• the economic prospects for Somerset and Exmoor;
• demographic trends; and
• environmental considerations.

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS

Past Performance

6.10 The economy of the plan area and Somerset in particular has performed well since 1971. It has seen steady overall growth in the number of people employed up to 1997. The overall number of businesses in the plan area has also increased since 1971. The rate of growth in these two areas has been equal to, or greater than that of the South West region over the same timescale. Also, unemployment data for the Somerset part of the plan area shows that the rate has been consistently lower than that of the South West region and nationally since 1976.

6.11 The area covered by the Joint Structure Plan is perceived to be predominantly rural in character but this is not wholly reflected in the composition of its employment. The area has a significantly greater dependence on manufacturing industries for employment when compared with the region and nationally. The economy is dominated by a few very large employers and, numerous, very small businesses. Evidence to support this can be found in the higher proportion of people who are self-employed in the plan area in comparison to that nationally. The favourable economic performance in the past has been achieved without the benefit of a large urban centre within the plan area to act as a focus for investment and development.

Constraints to Future Economic Growth

6.12 Although the economy of the area has, in general, performed well in recent years and is expected to continue to do so in the immediate future, it is difficult to predict what may happen over a longer timescale. There are a number of areas of concern which could inhibit the future performance of the Somerset and Exmoor economy covering a number of issues. These include:

• the continuing dependence on the manufacturing sector,
• the proportion of small and very small businesses,
• increasing levels of part-time employment,
• increasing levels of commuting, and,
• the dependence of some of the larger settlements on industry or employer.

6.13 The growth in the size of the workforce of Somerset and Exmoor will have a consequential impact on the demand for housing. Some of this growth in the workforce will need to be accommodated through the provision of additional housing over the timescale covered by the Joint Structure Plan. This demand for additional housing will be generated from two main sources, growth in the indigenous population and, those who migrate to the area for reasons of employment.

6.14 Data from the Census of Population 1991, reveals that about 56% of the population live in the fifteen settlements designated as Towns. Data from employment surveys (Census of Employment, and the Annual Employment Survey), shows that about 70% of employment for those who are not Ôself-employedÕ is located in these same fifteen Towns and that this proportion has remained constant throughout the period 1984 - 1998. The focused development strategy of the Joint Structure Plan seeks to encourage the provision of housing in those settlements where there is, and there will continue to be, high levels of employment. This should provide the potential for more people to live closer to their place of employment and/or other services and facilities and, therefore, reduce the need to travel.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND CHANGE

Demographic Background

6.15 Two demographic trends, migration and reductions in average household size, have played an important role in shaping the future housing requirement for Somerset and Exmoor. The total housing requirement for the plan period was calculated in three stages:

• A population projection was produced that included certain assumptions about future net migration.
  
  
• The population projection was incorporated into a household projection model. This included certain assumptions about future household formation rates that result in a projection of the number of additional households.
  
  
• The housing requirement is the sum of additional households that are projected will be generated during the plan period as a consequence of migration and household formation, mentioned above and, an allowance for other factors that influence the usage and demand for housing, including;
  
  i sharing and concealed households,
  ii..vacant dwellings, and,
  iii..those dwellings that will be used as second-homes or holiday homes.

These other factors are referred to as 'add-ons'. Individually they may not have a significant impact on the availability of housing within the plan area but, collectively, can have an influence on the use and availability of the total housing stock. These factors need to be identified and quantified, so that an allowance can be made for them in the projections of the future housing requirement.

ONS 1996 Based Projections

6.16 The most recent demographic information from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published in December 1998, suggested that the likely dwelling requirement over the period would be lower than that on which the figures included in RPG 10: Regional Planning Guidance for the South West (1994), had been based. The figures in the Regional Planning Guidance had been calculated on 1992 based data of population and household projections produced by the, then, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) and the Department of the Environment (DoE) respectively. The 1992 based projections indicated a population for Somerset only, in 2011, of 531,700. The 1996 based forecasts indicate a population of 519,900 for the equivalent area by the same end date. This reflects the trend for lower migration levels as has been indicated above.

Household Estimates and Projections

6.17 It is difficult to be precise about the level of household formation that has occurred in the 1990Õs. It has been estimated that 11,500 new households were created between 1991 and 1996. This is, however, considered to have been an over-estimate. This figure does not favourably compare with the number of housing completions during the period, which were only 9,600. The Department of the Environment Transport and the Regions (DETR) 1996 based household projections confirm a lower level of household requirement by 2011. The projection for the County of Somerset part of the plan area only, for the whole of the plan period (1991-2011), is for a rise from 190,000 to about 230,000.

6.18 The 1992 based population projection suggested a 1998 population for the County of Somerset of 491,400, compared with the latest ONS mid-year estimate (1998) for that year of 489,300 which is 2,100 lower. The 1996 based population forecasts imply a 41,700 growth in the number of households over the period 1991-2011, using the rates of household formation in the 1992/3 based household forecasts. However, the 1996 based household forecasts, nationally, show a downward revision in the rate of household formation and this is attributed primarily to an increasing trend of cohabitation.

Migration

6.19 In a society where peoples opportunity to move from one location to another to establish a place to live is not constrained, there will always be movement of individuals and, where possible, their associated household. This can occur over short or long distances and where it crosses identified (although they may be artificial and/or administrative) boundaries, it is referred to as migration. Between 1981 and 1991, it has been estimated that an average of about 18,600 people, aged 25 and over, were moving into, or out of, the County of Somerset each year, either as individuals or as part of a 'family unit'. Of these, just over 60% were moving into the area. Between 1991 and 1996 the average annual figure of people migrating increased by just over 3% to 19,200 when compared with the average for the previous decade. However, the balance between the two elements had changed. The proportion of those moving into the area had fallen to 57% whilst those moving out had increased to 43%. The consequence of these changes is that it has caused a reduction in the overall level of the average annual net in-migration to the area. The gross and net migration figures varied considerably for each individual year. In determining the influence of net in-migration on the housing requirement for the area it has been assumed that this will continue at the lower annual rate.

6.20 Migration estimates published by ONS reveal that the reduction in levels of net in-migration is not confined just to Somerset but, that a similar pattern of decline, over approximately the same period, has been identified in the South West region as a whole. There is no single, clearly identifiable, factor to which the decline in net in-migration levels can be directly attributed. Changes in education, housing, the economy and planning policies could all be said to have varying degrees of influence.

6.21 It has been clearly established that there are a number of socio-economic and other factors that influence levels of migration. Migration flows that affect the plan area fall within two broad categories;

• economic - those people who are actively seeking or have obtained employment in the area and are within the age band 0-59 (this includes children as these are unlikely to affect any decision of a household to move and would eventually become economically active on leaving school at age 16), and;
  
  
• retirement - those aged 60 and over. Whilst this may be a rather simplistic approach to migration, it recognises the importance of age as a factor in determining migration behaviour.

6.22 Data from ONS on the composition of those migrating into the area in the past identifies less than one third of these move for retirement purposes. The clear implication of this is that the majority of those people who move into area are doing so because of economic reasons. This is either directly, through employment for themselves or, indirectly, as part of a household whose primary wage earner has obtained employment within the plan area, or close to it.

Out Migration

6.23 One of the main sources of people moving out of the area is amongst those within the age group 16 - 25. There is a high level of migration out of the plan area by young adults, particularly those aged 18 and 19 who have just left school. Part of this can be attributed to the absence of a major higher education facility within the plan area combined with a change in attitudes and approach to this type education during the early 1990Õs. Throughout this decade Central Government sought to emphasise and encourage more people to undertake this type education and improve the overall level of people with relevant vocational qualifications within the workforce. The nearest large universities and/or associated higher education colleges where people can obtain such suitable qualifications are located at Bath, Bristol and Exeter. It has also been noted that there is not an equivalent level of return migration amongst people in their early twenties when many of those who moved out at age 18 or 19, would have completed their courses.

Sharing and Concealed Households

6.24 The conditions that give rise to the sharing and concealment of households are many and varied with complex inter-relationships. The ability of the land-use planning system to have a significant impact on the numbers of these types of households is limited. Although it may be a desirable objective to seek to reduce the levels of shared and concealed households, it is not clear how this can be achieved. For many households, sharing or concealment may represent a sensible, short-term response to adverse economic, housing, family or other social conditions. Whilst many households sharing accommodation will ultimately want to obtain their own dwelling, the building of new dwellings will not, in itself, lead to significant reductions in this sector. Compared with the national average, levels of sharing and concealment are low in Somerset and Exmoor.

Vacant Dwellings

6.25 The White Paper, published by Central Government in 1995, Our Future Homes: Opportunity, Choice, Responsibility, identified a national target for reducing the proportion of vacant houses by 2005, by one percentage point, from about 4% to 3%. The White Paper stated:

We must make the best use of the homes we have, to minimise the need to build new houses. Too many houses and flats lie empty or unused; across England over 4% of housing is vacant, about 800,000 homes. About 700,000 of these are in the private sector.... Tackling empty property will continue to be an important element of local housing strategies.

6.26 At any time there are a number of vacant properties for a variety of reasons. Some may have recently been built and waiting new occupants, others are being renovated and others are long term vacant. It is consistent with the principles of sustainable development of the Plan, to seek the best use of all the existing housing stock, where possible. The Local Housing Authorities are developing and refining their own strategies to address the issue of long term vacant housing.

6.27 Evidence obtained from the Council Tax Registers compiled by the District and Borough Councils, indicate a continued fall in the number and rate of vacant dwellings throughout Somerset during the 1990s. The level of vacancy at the start of the decade, as revealed through data from the Census of Population 1991, was high. This was partly a reflection of the 'hangover' from the high volume of house building of the late 1980s. The rapid transition of the national and local economy from growth to recession affected the relationship between the supply of, and demand for, housing in the area. Due to the relatively long construction time involved with social and commercial housing (about 12 - 18 months), the development industry was unable to respond quickly to these changes in economic conditions. Other factors such as the relatively high prices that were being asked within the housing market in the late 1980s, the sudden loss of public confidence in the economic and housing markets and, the uncertainty that was created in the labour market, contributed to, and exacerbated the problems of the housing markets, as people deferred decisions involving moving home and house purchase. The evidence for the high level of unsold new dwellings that existed at the start of the plan period is reflected in the high level of 'new never occupied' houses recorded in data from the Census of Population 1991.

6.28 The reduction in the proportion of vacant accommodation is both desirable and achievable. Analysis by the Local Planning Authorities within Somerset and Exmoor suggests that there are a number of vacant properties that could be brought into use. Council Tax returns indicate that the overall vacancy rate in Somerset alone, was about 3.4% in 1997. This is about 1% lower than that recorded in the Census of Population 1991. It is consistent with Central Government policy of reducing the level and number of empty properties and making more efficient use of the existing dwelling stock.

House Building

6.29 The average rate of house construction in Somerset and Exmoor for the first eight years from the base date of the plan period, 1991 - 1999, was about 1,930 dwellings per annum. This was significantly lower than the rate of 2,500 per annum for the whole of the plan period proposed in RPG 10: Regional Planning Guidance for the South West (1994), for that part of the plan area within the County of Somerset. The annual rate of house construction has been increasing in recent years as public confidence has returned and the economy has clearly moved out of recession. The number of houses that have been started each year is seen as an important indicator of the state of health of the house-building industry. They represent the extent to which the building industry has confidence that it will be able to sell the houses that are completed. The figures that have been collected by the DETR, have shown an increase year on year in the latter part of the 1990Õs, which confirms the fact that confidence is returning to the industry. Whilst it is accepted that in individual years the rate of house completions in the area covered by the Joint Structure Plan will exceed the average figure originally proposed in RPG 10 in the future, it is considered unlikely that this would be sustained at a high enough rate for the remainder of the timescale, and make up the total shortfall in the first eight years of the plan period. The figure of 44,800 new dwellings in Somerset and Exmoor, therefore represents a more realistic target that will be achieved by 2011.

6.30 Current and expected future rates of house building equate to the allocation recommended in Policy 33: Provision for Housing. As at April 1999 15,415 houses had been built and a further 13,725 were committed (see Table 6.1 below). This means they were;

• under construction,
• had a valid planning permission, or,
• were identified as an adopted local plan allocation.

6.31 The Local Planning Authorities are expected to identify, in their emerging district-wide local plans, sites that would contribute towards making up the shortfall between the sum of the completions and commitments and the allocation for their respective area. The Local Planning Authorities will be able to make some allowance for 'windfall' development (small housing developments on infill sites within existing settlements and previously developed land that becomes available for re-development, the occurrence of which cannot be easily predicted) against their respective allocation figures. Allowances should also be made in local plans for; the number of dwellings from existing stock that will be demolished, the use changed away from permanent residential accommodation and, those that become second-homes or holiday homes.