About
Somerset is a large and predominantly rural county, with a mix of market towns, coastal communities and dispersed villages. This geography brings many strengths, strong community networks and local identity, but it can also create challenges for accessing services, maintaining independence, and sustaining a diverse care market, particularly in more remote areas.
Somerset’s population is ageing, and this is a key driver of adult social care demand. As the number of older people grows, we expect more residents to need support to stay well and independent at home, and for some people to require more intensive support as their needs increase. We also know that demand is not only shaped by age; inequalities in health, housing and income, and the cumulative impact of long-term conditions can mean some communities experience poorer outcomes and require support earlier.
Looking ahead, future demand is expected to increase both in volume and complexity. Local modelling indicates that applying projected growth in the 65+ population (around 44%) to current service user figures would increase the number of people supported in long-term care from approximately 4,400 to approximately 6,000 by 2040.
We are also planning for increasing numbers of people living with dementia (with one estimate suggesting numbers could rise from just under 10,000 to around 18,000 by 2035), and for growing demand for nursing and residential care for people with mid to high levels of dementia. Alongside this, we are seeing more people of working age with complex needs, which increases the importance of timely community-based support, suitable housing options, and a sustainable workforce and provider market.